May 14, 2014
Cash ERCOT – another boring one. Some West pops, but nothing sustained. 70s in
Texas – in fact Houston and Cleveland are the same temperatures – one is much
above and one is much below — and both love Johnny Football too… DAM clear
$36.28 and $27.42 on and off respectively.
ERCOT Forwards – bullets months traded lower SLIGHTLY. Not much on the news
front. Summer 2014 = 20.00, Cal 15 = 12.23 and Cal 16 = 12.21 – power is
waiting for an inspiration.
NG – slightly higher on nothing – BUT wait… EIA tomorrow!!! Expectations around
100 bcf build. Last year built 99 and 5 year average is 88. Above 110 we test
$4.25, below 90 we reclaim $4.45 –
CL – up today on product demand numbers, however production grew to the highest
levels since 1987– 8.4 million barrels a day. Inventory ended the week with
398.7 million barrels (source Dow Jones News Plus – Energy Service)…we should
export some of this stuff…
Economy – stocks down, they were tired of making new highs…So many
excuses why, my favorite is… banks followed the market down because the outlook
is poor for trading income…by the way this isn’t new news…duh that’s why the
banks aren’t fans of Dodd Frank.
Another good one…from the WSJ..”A selloff in home-builder shares helped drag
down the S&P 500’s consumer-discretionary sector by 1.1%. The iShares U.S.
Home Construction exchange-traded fund shed 2.2% as executives from
home-builder firms presented to shareholders at a conference in New York, and
ahead of housing starts data on Friday. Recent data has indicated that growth
in the U.S. housing market has cooled in 2014, amid an unusually icy winter.”
“The regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they should focus on making more credit
available to potential homeowners, a shift in mission that could stabilize the
housing recovery.” Let’s just revisit our strict (ha!) lending policies – the
taxpayers got our back!
NG – $4.367
Crude – $102.37
SP500 – 1888.53
US 10-Yr – 2.544 – nice move yields down – a 2.68% move!!
Gold – 1305.4
**near market close