Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Reaction to $2.619 to $2.635 Determines Today’s Direction

September 16th, 2019

At 09:34 GMT, November natural gas futures are trading $2.554, down $0.019.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 78 billion cubic feet for the week-ended September 6.

Traders were looking for the EIA storage report for the week-ending September 6 to show another above-average build.

Total stocks now stand at 3.019 trillion cubic feet, up 393 billion cubic feet from a year ago, but 77 billion below the five-year average, the government said.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for September 13 to September 19, “Unseasonably strong high pressure will dominate the southern and eastern/east-central US with highs of 80s and 90s for strong late season demand into the weekend.

However, a tropical system will track across Florida and portions of the South and Southeast this weekend and next week, easing highs into the 70s and 80s. The Northwest, Rockies, and North Plains will be comfortable to mild with highs of upper 50s to 70s for light demand.

The important corridor from Chicago to NYC will be mostly comfortable with highs of 70s to mid-80s. Overall, demand will be high across the southern US and up the East Coast and moderate-low across the rest of the US.

Daily Forecast

Technically, the main trend is up, but momentum shifted to the downside on September 10 with the formation of the closing price reversal top at $2.685 and its subsequent confirmation. A trade through $2.685 will negate the chart pattern and could signal the resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $2.551 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

Our eventual downside target is $2.410 to $2.345.

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