Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – This Week’s Injection Could Be Five-Times Five-Year Average

April 15th, 2019

Natural gas futures are trading lower on Monday as downside momentum threatens to challenge last week’s low amid mild weather forecasts and warnings of a possible triple digit injection in this week’s government storage report.

At 10:10 GMT, May Natural Gas futures are trading $2.609, down $0.052.

Daily Forecast

Downside momentum on the daily chart has put the June natural gas futures contract in a position to take out the last main bottom at $2.675. This will reaffirm the downtrend and put the market in a position to challenge the February 7 main bottom at $2.647, followed by the low for the calendar year at $2.623.

From a longer-term perspective, taking out $2.686 will also put the market on the weak side of a weekly retracement zone. This will put the market in a bearish position.

Expectations of increasing injections could be driving the price action today. “Continued loose balances point to another hefty injection versus the five-year average next week as well,” according to Bespoke.

Last week, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. said there was a potential for the EIA to report a 100 Bcf-plus build, which would be five times the five-year average. Most analysts, however, are estimating a build closer to around 90 Bcf.

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